"The world is prosperous, all for profit; The world is bustling, all for profit. " The same is true for bulk commodities. Buying low and selling high is an eternal truth. At present, Zheng Mian has fallen thousands of miles, from the high point of 17000 yuan / ton to around 15300 yuan / ton, with a decline of about 10%. When Zheng Mian made great strides, the market once thought that the high point should reach 20000 yuan / ton. Once discouraged, the market looked down one after another.
Of course, there are complex reasons for Zheng Mian's correction. The first is the change of macro factors. Crude oil is the mother of bulk commodities, which leads the whole body, and its rise and fall changes have an important impact on global commodities. This round of crude oil was affected by the vaccine incident, with a wide range of shocks, which was obviously bad for commodities.
Recently, emerging countries around the world have begun to raise interest rates. Although economically developed countries insist on maintaining low interest rates, it is obvious that the impacted emerging countries cannot continue to bear commodity inflation and devaluation caused by currency drainage. In this regard, China has also repeatedly stressed the need to implement prudent fiscal and monetary policies, and the future direction should be slow, not too hasty. Such events or news have a great impact on the market. The interest rate hike is like a "grey rhinoceros". It has been waiting at a certain time node. It is not clear when it will come, but it will appear.
Last weekend's China US talks were full of gunpowder and had a great impact on cotton. In 2018, with the cooling of China US economic and trade relations, cotton prices began a two-year bear market, which shows how important the temperature of China US relations is to cotton. Although the talks have ended, the news from the release shows that bilateral relations still have to go through many tests, and cotton prices will continue to be under pressure.
From the above situation, it seems that the rise of cotton price is coming to an end. The author believes that the factors affecting the general trend of cotton price have not changed, and cotton still has the power of action. The main reason for the rise in cotton prices after the first fall in 2020 is the release of water from COVID-19 and global currencies. At present, with the support of the vaccine, the future economic recovery is a deterministic event, and the only uncertainty is the time of recovery. As the anchor of global commodity pricing, the US bond interest rate has attracted global attention all the time, and the US bond yield continues to hit a new high, indicating that the market has begun to worry. However, the Fed has repeatedly stated that it supports economic development and increases the employment rate, and does not care that the inflation rate is higher than 2% for a period of time. The author believes that the epidemic is still full of uncertainties, and countries will never risk raising interest rates. From the historical experience, the commodity market will have a 1-2 year boom after the crisis. At this time, it is a long way from the recovery of COVID-19 just after the past year.
In short, the commodity market opportunity rate in 2021 will probably not be higher than that of last year, but there is still some room for improvement.